Программа 30.09.2021 (ENG)

INTERNATIONAL ROUND TABLE DISCUSSION

«INCLUSIVE TALIBAN GOVERNMENT — THE DILEMMA OF THE MODERN STATE STRUCTURE MODEL. FINDING A BALANCE»

Date and time of the event:  30.09.2021, 11:00 — 19:00
Address: Republic of Kazakhstan, Nur-Sultan, Hilton Astana Hotel (EXPO), Str.Sauran 46,
Conference hall: Meeting Room 3
Start of registration: 10:00
Conference ID (Zoom): 225 722 2883
Access code: 555kz

Organizers: International Center for Geopolitical Forecasting «East-West», Association of Political Studies in Nur-Sultan.

Objective: Constructive analytical coverage of modern threats and contradictions in Afghanistan to ensure regional security in the Central Asian region. Subsequent advancement in the information field of expert assessments in the field of security in Central Asia through the prism of potential threats and changes in the geopolitical situation from the Taliban in the short — medium and long term. Promotion and popularization of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy initiatives aimed at strengthening regional security and global stability.

Tasks: Expert discussion about Inclusive Taliban government as a dilemma of the model of a modern state structure, new principles of the world order and approaches in the field of geopolitical cooperation. Demonstrate the role of Kazakhstan in the implementation of purposeful work to provide a scenario in the selection of strategic partners by public discussion of the declared topic and informational support of the event. Forecasted challenges, as well as proposals to reduce threats to the national security of Central Asia.

 Questions for discussion at the international round table

«Inclusive Taliban government is the dilemma of the modern state structure model. Finding a Balance «

Session 1. International Agenda 2021: Geopolitical turbulence and geostrategic tensions around Afghanistan. 

• The victorious war of the Taliban-as one of the «contractual» versions. Who is behind the rise to power and legitimacy of the Taliban? 
• A big game to move the global terrorism platform from the Greater Middle East to the Middle East. The space of instability in Greater Eurasia: another controlled chaos or a new global disorder? 
• Restoring the legitimacy of State power in Afghanistan through inclusive peaceful dialogue, taking into account the interests of all social, political, ethnic and religious groups in the country. 
• Forecasts of possible scenarios in Afghanistan. Short-and medium-term plans of the main actors. 
• Geopolitical features of Central Asia: the interest of world and regional powers from a military-strategic point of view. A geopolitical game that translates Afghan instability to the north. Options for projecting Afghan instability to Central Asia. 
• Central Asia’s peacekeeping potential: are there opportunities for mediation? Updating the national security system in the region: new challenges related to Afghanistan. Measures to protect Central Asia within the framework of the CSTO and SCO. 

Session 2. Security and future of Afghanistan. 

• Afghanistan as a potential springboard for terrorist organizations: forecasts and assessments, the balance of forces of the United States (ISIL, Al-Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, etc.). A view from Pakistan, China. India, Iran, Russia, and Central Asian countries. 
• International consequences of the likely squeezing out of the territory of Afghanistan of the groups «ISIL «(DAESH), «Al-Qaeda». Activation of terrorist groups in neighboring countries: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation. 
• The regime of political power of the Taliban movement. New format of social structure in Afghanistan – what can it be today? Risks for the female part of the Afghan population. 
• Is there an economy in Afghanistan: what are the opportunities for recovery? Will the Taliban engage in drug production to generate revenue and what measures are needed to combat drug trafficking? 
• Afghanistan as a source of refugees. Possible escalation of the migration crisis for Afghanistan’s neighbors, perceptions and possible responses in Central Asian countries. 

Session 3. China as a likely new source of stability in Afghanistan. 

• China’s Cooperation with the New Afghan Government: History and Specifics of Sino-Afghan Relations in the XX-XXI century. What is behind the friendship between Beijing and the Taliban?
• The Taliban for China is a factor in stabilizing the military-political situation, and a guarantee of the security of Chinese projects in Afghanistan. 
• China and Pakistan: a new axis of Afghan security? The China-Pakistan Alliance and its impact on the future of Afghanistan. Search for answers in the China-Pakistan-Afghanistan-India equation. 
• The future of the Belt and Road Initiative in the context of geopolitical turbulence around Afghanistan. Beijing’s geopolitical goals: Afghanistan as a land bridge to the Middle East. Expansion of the economic corridor. 
• Whether China is ready to take responsibility for restoring and rebuilding Afghanistan: expectations, assessments, and reality. 

Moderator: Nugmanova Karlygash Zhandildinovna – Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor, President of the International Center for Geopolitical Projection «East-West», Director of Political Research Associations in Nur-Sultan.   

DOCUMENT